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Flag and manage threatened revenue to protect renewals and forecast accurately.
By Sebastian StreiffertPublished Jan 10, 2026Updated May 29, 20268 min read
Revenue at Risk (RAR) is the portion of your recurring revenue that might not renew. When an account shows signs of trouble (declining usage, support escalations, champion departure), you flag that revenue as "at risk" so your team can intervene before it churns.
This is not theoretical concern. It is a specific dollar amount tied to a specific account, with a documented reason and an expected timeline. RAR entries give leadership visibility into potential revenue gaps months before they appear in the financial statements.
Not every account hiccup warrants a RAR entry. The goal is to surface genuinely threatened revenue, not to create a worry list. Here are the signals that typically justify flagging:
Some teams also flag accounts approaching renewal without confirmed expansion or renewal commitment. The logic: if you do not have a signed renewal 90 days out, treat that revenue as partially at risk until confirmed.
To flag revenue at risk, navigate to the Account detail page and look for the "Revenue at Risk" section. Click "Add Risk Entry" to create a new flag.
| Field | Description | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Amount at Risk | The dollar value threatened (partial or full contract) | $45,000 ARR |
| Risk Reason | Category for the risk type | Champion Departure |
| Description | Specific context about the situation | VP of Ops left in November, new contact is evaluating options |
| Probability | Likelihood this revenue churns (0-100%) | 40% |
| Expected Resolution | When you expect clarity | End of Q1 |
You do not have to flag the entire contract value. If a $100K account might downgrade to a smaller tier, flag $40K at risk. If the entire relationship is threatened, flag the full amount. Be realistic rather than conservative or aggressive.
RAR entries require ongoing attention. Situations evolve, and your flags should reflect current reality.
When the situation concludes, resolve the entry with one of three outcomes:
| Resolution | When to Use | Effect |
|---|---|---|
| Saved | Customer renewed or threat was mitigated | Removed from risk totals, logged as success |
| Churned | Customer cancelled or downgraded | Revenue removed, logged for churn analysis |
| False Alarm | Risk was never real (bad data, miscommunication) | Removed without counting as save or churn |
Lumenbase incorporates RAR into revenue forecasts, adjusting expected revenue based on flagged risks.
For each RAR entry, the system reduces forecast revenue by the risk-adjusted amount:
A $50,000 entry at 60% probability reduces your forecast by $30,000. If multiple entries exist for an account, they are summed. The account's net expected revenue equals contracted value minus total risk-adjusted deductions.
The Revenue Forecast and Account Health reports include RAR totals. You can filter to see only at-risk accounts, sort by risk amount, or group by risk reason to identify patterns.
RAR tracking only works if someone actually acts on the information. Here is a simple process that works for most teams:
After working with teams across different industries, these approaches tend to produce the most useful RAR tracking:
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